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111

This indicator set is prepared for users to give up-to-date information about different areas of Turkish Economy.

This document is updated at the first day of every week.

Last update: January 07, 2019

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January 2019

TURKISH ECONOMY

Republic of TurkeyMinistry of Treasury and Finance

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333

CONTENTS Turkish Economy in the World.................................................................4 Demographic Profile.................................................................................7 Growth....................................................................................................11 Employment............................................................................................27 Inflation...................................................................................................39 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments...............................................50 Public Finance........................................................................................70 Debt Management..................................................................................79 Financial Sector....................................................................................113 Market Indicators..................................................................................125 Investment Environment.......................................................................136 Relationship with the IMF and EU........................................................142 Social Security......................................................................................145 Labor Market.........................................................................................154 R&D......................................................................................................166 Energy Sector.......................................................................................181

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444

TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE WORLD

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555

World’s Biggest Economies (GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dollar, 2017)

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2018

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666

Europe’s Biggest Economies (GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2017)

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2018

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777

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

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888

25.7

15.8

15.6

15.1

15.1

15.0

14.5

14.7

14.9

13.7

63.5

65.2

61.5

63.9

65.7

63.9

64.3

61.4

61.5

59.9

10.8

19.0

22.9

21.0

19.2

21.1

21.3

23.9

23.7

26.4

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Turkey

Russia

Europe

Romania

Slovak Rep.

Poland

Ukraine

Hungary

Czech Rep.

Bulgaria

0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age

Favourable Demographics

Demographic Profile* (as of 2013)

(*) Estimates

Source: UN

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99

17.1

16.1

16.4

15.4

14.8

14.8

16.0

14.0

13.9

13.8

54.4

53.2

56.2

51.0

52.5

48.7

50.8

50.6

49.4

49.4

28.5

30.8

27.3

33.6

32.7

36.5

33.2

35.4

36.7

36.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

Ukraine

Turkey

Europe

Hungary

Bulgaria

Czech Rep.

Slovak Rep.

Poland

Romania

0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age

Source: UN

Favourable DemographicsDemographic Profile (as of 2050)

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101010

Turkey: Population Prospects (Million People)

82.4 83.4 84.4

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2019 2020 2021

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021

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111111

GROWTH

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121212

GDP Growth Rates (%, YoY)

-16.0

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.020

01 Q

1Q

320

02 Q

1Q

320

03 Q

1Q

320

04 Q

1Q

320

05 Q

1Q

320

06 Q

1Q

320

07 Q

1Q

320

08 Q

1Q

320

09 Q

1Q

320

10 Q

1Q

320

11 Q

1Q

320

12 Q

1Q

320

13 Q

1Q

320

14 Q

1Q

320

15 Q

1Q

320

16 Q

1Q

320

17 Q

1Q

320

18 Q

1Q

3

Source: TURKSTAT

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131313

3.0

4.2

6.2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1999-2004 2005-2010 2011-2017

Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

GDP Growth Rate (Annual Average, %)

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141414Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program2019-2021

GDP Growth Rate Projections (%)

2.3

3.5

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2019 2020 2021

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151515

Volatility of Growth(Coefficient of Variation of the Growth Rates)

2.03

1.41

0.46

1

2

3

1999-2004 2005-2010 2011-2017

Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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161616

3,581

4,698

5,961

7,3047,906

9,656

10,931

8,980

10,56011,205

11,588

12,48012,112

11,01910,88310,602

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Per Capita GDP (USD)

Source: TURKSTAT

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171717

Per Capita GDP, 2017(Purchasing Power Parity, EU-27=100)

Source: EUROSTAT

Trend line: moving average

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181818Source: OECD

Comparison of Europe and Turkey:Real GDP Growth (2001=100)

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191919

Contribution to GDP Growth* (%)

-12.0

-7.0

-2.0

3.0

8.0

13.0

18.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Private Cons. Gov. Cons. Total Investment Net Export GDP Growth

Source: TURKSTAT*The contribution is calculated in accordance with the Chain Linked Volume Index.

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202020

Components of Demand in Europe and Turkey: (2001=100)

Source: OECD

Private Consumption Export

İthalat

Gross Fixed Capital Formation Import

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212121

Productivity Index of Total Industry

Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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22222222

Productivity and Real Wages in Total Industrial Sector(Per Hour Worked)

Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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23232323

Industrial Production Index (Seasonally Adjusted)*

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2007

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2012

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2013

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2014

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2015

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2016

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2017

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2018

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

23Source: TURKSTAT

* Latest data as of October. In order to fully comply with the European Union in the Industrial Production Index, new dataseries have been announced since January 2018 and as in the European Union countries, TURKSTAT has begun toproduce the results of Industrial Production Index 2015 = 100 based on NACE Rev.2. The results of 2005-2017 wereestimated with the econometric model.

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24242424

Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry (Seasonally Adjusted, %)

Source: CBRT

55

60

65

70

75

80

8520

07-1 3 5 7 9 11

2008

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

09-1 3 5 7 9 11

2010

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

11-1 3 5 7 9 11

2012

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

13-1 3 5 7 9 11

2014

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

15-1 3 5 7 9 11

2016

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

17-1 3 5 7 9 11

2018

-1 3 5 7 9 11

24As of December 2018

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25252525

Real Sector Confidence Index

Source: CBRT 25

40

60

80

100

120

140

2007

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

08-1 3 5 7 9 11

2009

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

10-1 3 5 7 9 11

2011

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

12-1 3 5 7 9 11

2013

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

14-1 3 5 7 9 11

2015

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

16-1 3 5 7 9 11

2017

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

18-1 3 5 7 9 11

As of December 2018

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26262626

Consumer Confidence Index

Source: TURKSTAT 26As of December 2018

50

60

70

80

9020

07-1 3 5 7 9 11

2008

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

09-1 3 5 7 9 11

2010

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

11-1 3 5 7 9 11

2012

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

13-1 3 5 7 9 11

2014

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

15-1 3 5 7 9 11

2016

-1 3 5 7 9 1120

17-1 3 5 7 9 11

2018

-1 3 5 7 9 11

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272727

EMPLOYMENT

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2828

Unemployment Rate * (%)

9.59.0 9.2

10.0

13.1

11.1

9.1

8.4

9.0

9.910.3

10.910.6

11.4

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017September

2018September

Source: TURKSTAT

* The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.

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29

Youth Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, %)

Source: OECD

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.020

06-I II III IV

2007

-I II III IV20

08-I II III IV

2009

-I II III IV20

10-I II III IV

2011

-I II III IV20

12-I II III IV

2013

-I II III IV20

14-I II III IV

2015

-I II III IV20

16-I II III IV

2017

-I II III IV20

18-I II

EU (28 countries) OECD Turkey

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303030

Employment * (Seasonally Adjusted, Million People)

Source: TURKSTAT 30

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

3020

08-1 4 7 10

2009

-1 4 7 1020

10-1 4 7 10

2011

-1 4 7 1020

12-1 4 7 10

2013

-1 4 7 1020

14-1 4 7 10

2015

-1 4 7 1020

16-1 4 7 10

2017

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7

*As of September 2018.The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.

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32.5

3.7

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

21222324252627282930313233

2008

-1 4 7 1020

09-1 4 7 10

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 4 7 10

2016

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7 10

2018

-1 4 7

Labor Force (Million People) Unemployed (Million People, right axis)

Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted)

31Source: TURKSTAT

*As of September 2018.The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.

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Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted)

53.4

47.4

11.3

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

38

41

44

47

50

53

5620

08-1 4 7 10

2009

-1 4 7 1020

10-1 4 7 10

2011

-1 4 7 1020

12-1 4 7 10

2013

-1 4 7 1020

14-1 4 7 10

2015

-1 4 7 1020

16-1 4 7 10

2017

-1 4 7 1020

18-1 4 7

Labour Force Part icipation Rate (%) Employment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%, right axis)

32Source: TURKSTAT

*As of September 2018. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.

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Agriculture (million people)

Employment Developments by Sector *

33

3.84.04.24.44.64.85.05.25.45.65.86.0

2008

-1 4 7 1020

09-1 4 7 10

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 4 7 10

2016

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7 10

2018

-1 4 7

Industry Employment (sea.adj.) Industry Employment

Industry (million people)

0.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.32.5

2008

-1 4 7 1020

09-1 4 7 10

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 4 7 10

2016

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7 10

2018

-1 4 7

Construction Employment (sea.adj.) Construction Employment

Construction (million people)

9.010.011.012.013.014.015.016.017.0

2008

-1 4 7 1020

09-1 4 7 10

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 4 7 10

2016

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7 10

2018

-1 4 7

Services Employment (sea.adj.) Services Employment

Services (million people)

Source: TURKSTAT

*As of September 2018. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.520

08-1 4 7 10

2009

-1 4 7 1020

10-1 4 7 10

2011

-1 4 7 1020

12-1 4 7 10

2013

-1 4 7 1020

14-1 4 7 10

2015

-1 4 7 1020

16-1 4 7 10

2017

-1 4 7 1020

18-1 4 7

Agriculture Employment (sea. adj.) Agriculture Employment

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34

Sector Shares in Total Employment (%)

Sectoral Transition of Employment

-5

5

10

15

20

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 4 7 10

2016

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7 10

2018

-1 4 7

Employment Agriculture Industry Construction Services

Sector Contributions to Employment Growth(% points)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Agriculture Industry Construction Services

Source: TURKSTAT

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35

Employment Status at Work (%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

UnpaidFamilyWorker OwnAccountWorker/Employer RegularEmployee/CasualEmployee

Source: TURKSTAT

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Informal Employment Rate (%)

36

32

35

38

41

44

47

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

InformalEmployment

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

86.0

87.0

88.0

89.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Agriculture Non‐Agriculture(rightaxis)

Source: TURKSTAT

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37

Labour Force Participation Rate (%)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Female 23.3 23.6 23.6 24.5 26.0 27.6 28.8 29.5 30.8 30.3 31.5 32.5 33.6

Male 70.6 69.9 69.8 70.1 70.5 70.8 71.7 71.0 71.5 71.3 71.6 72.0 72.5

Total 46.4 46.3 46.2 46.9 47.9 48.8 49.9 50.0 50.8 50.5 51.3 52.0 52.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Source: TURKSTAT

40

45

50

55

60

65

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

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Labour Force Participation Rate by Education Level (2017, %)

38

Male Female

Higher Education

Note: The balloon size reflects the labour force share of the relevant group.

Higher Education

Source: TURKSTAT

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393939

INFLATION

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404040

Average Inflation in Periods (%)

Source: TURKSTAT

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414141

20.8

15.9

9.8

6.0

5

10

15

20

25

2018* 2019 2020 2021

Year End CPI Forecasts in 2019-2021 (%)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021,September 2018.

(*) Realization estimate.

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424242

Food, Energy and Core Inflation(December 2007 – December 2018, year-on-year percentage change)

Inflation: Recent Developments

Source: TURKSTAT

-5

5

10

15

20

25

30

35D

ec-0

7

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-12

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Food Energy Goods excluding energy and food

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434343

Inflation: Recent Developments

Services Inflation and Selected Sub-items (December 2007 – December 2018, year-on-year change, percent)

Source: TURKSTAT

5

10

15

20

25

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-11

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Services Transport Services Rent Restaurants and Hotels

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444444

Inflation – Overall Trend*Inflation Trend

(January 2007 – December 2018, percentage change)

(*) As of December 2018. Monthly change of seasonally adjusted SCA-C index (3 month moving average) .

Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2420

07-1 4 7 10

2008

-1 4 7 1020

09-1 4 7 10

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 4 7 10

2016

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7 10

2018

-1 4 7 10

(%)

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28.5

13.7

0.0

57.8

-10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Food

Ener

gy

Toba

cco

Oth

ers

454545

Average of 2004 – 2017 December 2018

Inflation – Main Determinants

Contribution to CPI Inflation (Percentage Share)

Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

28.9

14.4

7.5

49.1

10

20

30

40

50

Food

Ener

gy

Toba

cco

Oth

ers

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4646

Inflation and Expectations*: (Annual % Change)

16.46

12.43

20.30

2

7

12

17

22

2720

07-1 4 7 10

2008

-1 4 7 1020

09-1 4 7 10

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 7

2016

-1 720

17-1 7

2018

-1 720

19-1 7

2020

-1 7

CPI

12 Months

24

Months

Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT

(*) CBRT’s Survey of Expectations as of December 2018.CBRT’s Survey of Expectations has been released once a month since January 2013.

2018 Target: 5.0 %

2019 Target: 5.0 %

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474747

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

103

4710104

4710105

4710106

4710107

4 710108

4710109

4710110

4710111

4710112

4710113

4710114

4710115

4710116

4 710117

4710118

4710119

4710120

4710

12 months

24 months

Inflation Expectations (December 2018)

End year 21.28

12 months 16.46

24 months 12.43

Annual Inflation and Expectations (%)

Source: CBRT’s Survey of Expectations

Year End Target

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484848

Inflation Developments in the World

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Ja

n-05

Jun-

05

Nov

-05

Apr

-06

Sep

-06

Feb-

07

Jul-0

7

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug

-09

Jan-

10

Jun-

10

Nov

-10

Apr

-11

Sep

-11

Feb-

12

Jul-1

2

Dec

-12

May

-13

Oct

-13

Mar

-14

Aug

-14

Jan-

15

Jun-

15

Nov

-15

Apr

-16

Sep

-16

Feb-

17

Jul-1

7

Dec

-17

Turkey

World

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

Source: IMF, TURKSTAT

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4949

Turkey’s Rank According to Inflation Figures

* The total number of countries is 177. The ranking is in descending order.

Source: IMF

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505050

FOREIGN TRADE and BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

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5151

36.147.3

63.273.5

85.5

107.3

132.0

102.1113.9

134.9

152.5 151.8157.6143.8

142.5

157.0168.0

25

50

75

100

125

150

17520

02

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

Annual Exports (Billion USD)

Source: TURKSTAT(*) Annualized as of November

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525252

Annual Imports (Billion USD)

Source: TURKSTAT(*) Annualized as of November

51.669.3

97.5116.8

139.6

170.1

202.0

140.9

185.5

240.8236.5

251.7242.2

207.2198.6

233.8 229.6

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

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535353

Export and Import Growth (Annualized Percentage Change over the Previous Year)

-40

-30

-20

-10

10

20

30

40

5020

03-1 4 7 10

2004

-1 4 7 1020

05-1 4 7 10

2006

-1 4 7 1020

07-1 4 7 10

2008

-1 4 7 1020

09-1 4 7 10

2010

-1 4 7 1020

11-1 4 7 10

2012

-1 4 7 1020

13-1 4 7 10

2014

-1 4 7 1020

15-1 4 7 10

2016

-1 4 7 1020

17-1 4 7 10

2018

-1 4 7 10

Exports Imports

Source: TURKSTAT

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545454

Exports in Europe and Turkey (2001=100)

Source: OECD

80100120140160180200220240260280300320

2001

Q1 Q3

2002

Q1 Q3

2003

Q1 Q3

2004

Q1 Q3

2005

Q1 Q3

2006

Q1 Q3

2007

Q1 Q3

2008

Q1 Q3

2009

Q1 Q3

2010

Q1 Q3

2011

Q1 Q3

2012

Q1 Q3

2013

Q1 Q3

2014

Q1 Q3

2015

Q1 Q3

2016

Q1 Q3

2017

Q1 Q3

2018

Q1

Turkey Hungary Poland SpainPortugal Italy Euro Area

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555555

3.83.1

6.6

8.3

3.64.3

4

8

12

World Euro Area DevelopingAsia

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Latin America Turkey

Export Performance (Average Annual Growth Rate, 2005-2017)

Source: TURKSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2018

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565656

170.0182.0 191.0

204.4

0255075

100125150175200225

2018* 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P

Exports Targets (FOB, Billion USD)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021, September 2018P: Program

(*) Realization estimate.

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575757

5

10

15

20

25

30

3519

98

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumption goods

Imports (% of GDP)

Source: TURKSTAT

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5858

Brent Oil Price (USD/bbl)

Source: Reuters

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

J-02

O-0

2J-

03A

-04

J-05

O-0

5J-

06A

-07

J-08

O-0

8J-

09A

-10

J-11

O-1

1J-

12A

-13

J-14

O-1

4J-

15A

-16

J-17

O-1

7J-

18

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595959

Impact of Energy Prices to Imports (Billion USD)

38.5 41.7 44.5 43.8 46.2 50.2 49.8 55.3

0.0

12.515.6 12.1 8.7

-22.6 -18.1-12.3

-30

-20

-10

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Reel Energy Imports with 2010 Prices Price Effect Total Enegy Imports

Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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606060

Machinery Imports (Billion USD)

29.4

42.647.9 46.1

43.247.4 48.3

44.1

36.435.9

29.926.1

21.9

15.712.2

35.9

43.9

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996-2002

Average

20032004 20052006 20072008 2009 20102011 20122013 20142015 201620172018*

Source: TURKSTAT(*) Annualized as of November

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616161

Foreign Trade (% of GDP, 2017)

Source: WTO, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2018

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626262

-2.4-3.5

-4.2-5.7 -5.5 -5.1

-1.8

-5.8

-8.9

-5.5-6.7

-4.7

-3.7

-3.8

-5.6

1.0 -0.3-0.5

-1.1 -1.20.2

2.3

-1.4

-3.2

0.5

-1.5

0.5

0.1-1.1 -1.7

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

CA Balance/GDP CA Balance/GDP (Excluding Energy)

Current Account Balance / GDP (%)

Souce: CBRT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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636363(*) Figures represent IMF estimates. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2018

Current Account Balance (% of GDP, 2017)

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646464

Financing of Current Account Deficit (Billion USD)

Source: CBRT

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 J-O

2018 J-O

Current Account Balance -36.9 -39.4 -11.4 -44.6 -74.4 -48.1 -63.6 -43.6 -32.1 -33.1 -47.4 -35.1 -27.2

Capital Inflows (Excluding Reserves) 48.8 49.7 -3.5 49.1 51.4 69.4 68.0 42.4 25.7 28.4 42.1 40.2 6.8

Foreign Direct Investment 22.0 19.9 8.6 9.1 16.2 13.7 13.6 13.1 18.0 13.3 10.9 9.4 9.2

Non-Bank Private Sector’s Net Credits 29.3 26.4 -13.0 -2.8 8.3 6.9 6.2 6.0 12.2 12.7 7.5 6.1 6.0

Other (Net) -2.5 3.5 0.9 42.8 26.9 48.8 48.3 23.2 -4.6 2.3 23.6 24.7 -8.4

Net Errors and Ommissions -0.3 2.0 2.3 -0.5 8.3 -1.8 1.0 1.1 9.8 11.0 0.7 -0.1 18.4

Bank’s Currency and Deposits 3.5 9.8 -6.7 -13.6 -0.2 -2.5 0.2 -0.6 14.1 7.0 5.6 2.4 12.5

Change in Reserves 8.0 -1.1 0.1 12.8 -1.8 20.8 9.9 -0.5 -11.8 0.8 -8.2 4.5 -15.2

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656565

1.1 1.72.8

10.0

20.222.0

19.9

8.6 9.1

16.2

13.7 13.6 13.1

18.0

13.310.9 10.7

5

10

15

20

25

1993

-200

2Av

erag

e

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (Billion USD)

Source: CBRT(*) Annualized as of October

65

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666666

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

2018*

Short-Term Capital Long-Term Capital Direct Investments (Net) Portfolio Investments

Capital Inflows (Billion USD)

66Source: CBRT(*) Annualized as of October

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676767

Central Bank’s Gross FX Reserves (Billion USD)

(*) As of December 28, 2018.Source: CBRT

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120J

02 M SJ

03 M SJ

04 M SJ

05 M SJ

06 M SJ

07 M SJ

08 M SJ

09 M SJ

10 M SJ

11 M SJ

12 M SJ

13 M SJ

14 M SJ

15 M SJ

16 M SJ

17 M SJ

18 M S

$72.0 billion*

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686868

-36.0

-26.0-23.5 -24.1

-40

-30

-20

-10

02018* 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P

Current Account Balance Targets (Billion USD)

P: Program

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021, September 2018

(*) Realization estimate.

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696969

Current Account Balance Targets (% of GDP)

-4.7

-3.3

-2.7 -2.6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

02018* 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P

P: Program

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021, September 2018

(*) Realization estimate.

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707070

PUBLIC FINANCE

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717171

Central Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)

(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targetsSource: Ministry of Finance, 2019-2021 NEP

11.611.2

8.6

5.0

1.00.6

1.6 1.8

5.3

3.5

1.31.9

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.11.5

1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.020

01

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

2019

*

2020

*

2021

*

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727272

General Government Budget Deficit Excl. Privatization(% of GDP)

(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targets

Source: Strategy and Budget Presidency , 2019-2021 NEP

12.2

10.6

7.8

4.2

0.60.2

1.52.4

5.6

3.2

0.61.3 1.3 1.1

0.6

1.7 2.02.6

1.8 2.1 1.9

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

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737373

Maastricht Criterion: 3.0 %

EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)

Source: Eurostat

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747474

General Government Deficit (% of GDP, 2015)

Source: Eurostat

-1.7

-4

-2

2

4

6

8Ire

land

Gre

ece

UK

Port

ugal

Spai

n

Latv

ia

Pola

nd

Slov

akia

Lith

uani

a

Fran

ce

Rom

ania

Slov

enia

S. C

ypru

s

Net

herla

nds

Cze

ch R

ep.

Italy

Aus

tria

Ger

man

y

Hun

gary

Cro

atia

Bel

gium

Mal

ta

Bul

garia

Turk

ey

Den

mar

k

Finl

and

Luxe

mbo

urg

Esto

nia

Swed

en

Maastricht criterion: 3 %

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7575

Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)

(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targets

Source: Strategy and Budget Presidency , 2019-2021 NEP

7.0

11.8

9.7

7.1

3.5

-0.1

-1.8

0.1

1.5

4.8

2.2

0.10.9 0.4 0.5 0.0

1.01.8

2.71.6 1.7 1.5

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1990

-200

0 Av

g.

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

2019

*

2020

*

2021

*

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767676

2003-2015 Average: 2.1

Public Sector Primary Surplus (Program Definition)(% of GDP)

(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targets

Source: For pre-2012 Undersecretariat of Treasury, for 2012 and onwards Strategy and Budget Presidency

0.5

4.65.3

4.6 4.33.0

1.5

-1.0

0.7 1.60.9 0.9

0.5 0.6

-0.6-1.0

-2.1

-0.2

0.20.8

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1993

- 20

02

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

2019

*

2020

*

2021

*

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777777

Privatization Implementations (Billion USD)

Source: Privatization Authority

8.2

60.2

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1986 - 2003 2004 - 2017

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787878

Medium Term Program (% GDP)

Source: Strategy and Budget Presidency, New Economy Program 2019-2021

2018 2019 2020 2021

Central Government Budget Balance -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -1.7

Central Government Revenues 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.7

Central Government Expeditures 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.4

Central Government Primary Balance (IMF Definition) -1.0 0.0 0.3 0.8

Central Government Revenues (IMF Definition) 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.3

Central Government Primary Expenditures (IMF Definition) 19.9 19.0 18.7 18.5

Total Public Sector Primary Balance (IMF Definition) -2.1 -0.2 0.2 0.8

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797979

DEBT MANAGEMENT

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808080

EU Defined General Government Debt (% of GDP)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

72.1

65.7

57.7

50.8

44.7

38.2 38.1

43.9

40.136.5

32.7 31.428.8 27.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 29.2

32.6

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

Maastricht Criteria : 60%

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818181

General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP, 2018 Q1)

Source: Eurostat (Updated: July 20, 2018, Ministry of Treasury and Finance (As of June 29, 2018)For 2018 estimates of USA, Japan, Canada; IMF World Economic Outlook (July 2018)

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828282

General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)

Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 07-20-2018); Ministry of Treasury and Finance, (As of June 29, 2018)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2EU (28 Countries) 81,4 83,8 85,7 86,4 84,4 83,3 81,6 81,0Euro Area (EU-19) 86,6 89,7 91,6 91,8 89,9 89,1 86,8 86,3Greece 172,1 159,6 177,4 178,9 176,8 180,8 178,6 179,7Italy 116,5 123,4 129,0 131,8 131,6 131,4 131,2 133,1Portugal 111,4 126,2 129,0 130,6 128,8 129,2 124,8 124,9Belgium 102,6 104,3 105,5 107,6 106,6 106,6 103,8 106,3France 87,8 90,6 93,4 94,9 95,6 98,2 98,5 99,1Spain 69,5 85,7 95,5 100,4 99,3 99,0 98,1 98,1United Kingdom 80,8 84,1 85,2 87,0 87,9 87,9 87,4 86,7Austria 82,4 81,9 81,3 84,0 84,8 83,0 78,3 76,5Hungary 80,5 78,4 77,1 76,6 76,6 75,9 73,3 73,8Germany 78,6 79,9 77,4 74,5 70,8 67,9 63,9 61,5Netherlands 61,7 66,2 67,7 67,9 64,6 61,9 57,0 54,0Turkey 36,5 32,7 31,4 28,8 27,6 28,3 28,3 29,2

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838383

EU – Defined Debt Stock Targets (% of GDP)

Source: New Economy Program, September 2018.

31.1

28.528.2

27.2

24

26

28

30

32

2018 2019 2020 2021

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848484

Public Net Debt Stock (% of GDP)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

34.4 23.218.5

10.06.2

3.1 2.72.5

0.8

0.6

‐3.0 ‐4.4 ‐3.4 ‐2.4 ‐0.7

0.0

‐0.1

0.4 5.8

59.9

53.6

47.6

40.1

32.728.2 26.8

30.927.4

20.815.3 10.9

9.16.9 8.4 8.4 8.4

8.913.7

‐10

10

20

30

40

50

60

702002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

TRY FX Total

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858585

Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

Billion TL 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

I- Public Gross Debt Stock 257 297 333 351 366 355 407 465 497 546 563 623 650 722 820 955 993 1057 1228• Central Government 243 283 317 332 346 334 381 442 474 519 533 586 613 678 760 876 913 970 1121• Rest of the Public Sector 14 14 16 19 20 21 26 23 23 27 30 37 37 44 60 78 80 87 107

II- Assets and Public Sector Deposit 42 47 58 81 108 107 140 156 179 256 322 426 463 561 601 692 722 754 739• Central Bank Net Assets 25 25 28 31 46 42 60 66 86 143 190 271 304 376 397 445 482 508 480• Public Sector Deposits 11 13 17 32 38 35 42 48 47 60 72 84 77 92 100 130 119 122 134• Unemployment Insurance Fund 5 9 13 18 24 31 38 42 46 54 61 70 81 93 103 117 121 125 125

III- Public Net Debt Stock 215 251 275 270 258 248 267 309 317 290 240 197 187 161 219 262 272 303 489

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868686

Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

215251

275 270 258 248267

309 317290

240

197 187161

219

262 272303

489

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

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878787

Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%)

14.4

12.5

9.8

6.85.8 5.5 5.1 5.3

4.23.0 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.8

5

10

15

20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017*Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

(*) Forecast

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888888

Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues (%)

85.7

70.9

56.3

38.233.4 31.9 30.1 30.9

22.916.6 17.4 15.3 14.2 13.0

10.9 10.6

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

(*) Provisional

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898989

48.9 53.9 50.2 54.0 55.8 57.0 53.5 56.0 59.2 59.8 61.5 65.2 67.6 69.8 73.7 75.1

51.1 46.1 49.8 46.0 44.2 43.0 46.5 44.0 40.8 40.2 38.5 34.8 32.4 30.2 26.3 24.9

25

50

75

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Nov.

Fixed Floating

Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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909090

53.6 58.4 62.3 62.768.6 66.1 70.8 73.3 70.3 72.5 68.7 67.7 64.9 61.7 61.1

55.2

46.4 41.6 37.7 37.331.4 33.9 29.2 26.7 29.7 27.5 31.3 32.3 35.1 38.3 38.9

44.8

25

50

75

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Nov.

TL Foreign Exch.

Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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919191

Sensitivity of General Government Debt to Shocks

2001 2017

Change in real exchange rate app/depby 5 percentage points

+ / - 2.1 points + / - 0.5 points

Change in TL interest rate by 500bp + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.8 points

Change in GDP growth rate by 2 percentage points

+ / - 1.6 points + / - 0.5 points

Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by EU standards) measuredby deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2017 stock figures.

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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929292

Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)

Source: Central Bank of Turkey

4.4

7.1

10.3

13.6 13.4

10.38.6

12.4

17.3

23.221.5 21.5

17.3 17.319.4

14.8

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

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939393

Average Maturity of Borrowing

Domestic Borrowing (months) Eurobond Issuance (years)

(*) As of November 2018(**) As of November 2018

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

9.411.614.8

27.728.034.031.7

35.3

44.144.7

60.8

74.368.5

71.867.4

71.2

61.1

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

8,29,510,1

12,29,9

8,0 8,0 7,3

17,616,5

22,4

14,214,8

9,1

20,620,2

16,4

19,7

14,4

18,1

8,610,0

3,0

9,06,6

5,0

15,315,7

7,08,6

10,0

20,0

10,0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

**

Euro Dollar Yen

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949494Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

Duration of TL-Denominated Domestic Debt Stock(*)(**) (Months)

6.68.0 8.2

10.2

8.1 7.5

10.6

12.5

15.0

23.1

28.9

30.3 30.731.4 31.1

32.2 32.1 31.631.0 31.131.1 30.7

30.229.5 29.9

6

10

14

18

22

26

30

34

Dec

04

Dec

05

Dec

06

Dec

07

Dec

08

Dec

09

Dec

10

Dec

11

Dec

12

Dec

13

Dec

14

Dec

15

Dec

16

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Apr

18

May

18

Jun

18

Jul 1

8

Agu

18

Sep

18

Oct

18

Nov

18

(*) Macaulay duration(**) Excluding non-cash securities, CPI indexed bonds/lease certificates and gold bonds/lease certificates.

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959595Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

Duration of External Bond Stock* (Months)

49.2

58.6

67.0

70.7

73.871.0

75.8 76.177.5

76.2

77.6

78.0

77.3

79.0

78.6

78.179.4

82.1 81.7 80.980.1 79.6 79.2 79.4

78.7

45

55

65

75

85D

ec.0

4

Dec

.05

Dec

.06

Dec

.07

Dec

.08

Dec

.09

Dec

.10

Dec

.11

Dec

.12

Dec

.13

Dec

.14

Dec

.15

Dec

.16

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Apr

18

May

18

Jun

18

Jul 1

8

Agu

18

Sep

18

Oct

18

Nov

18

(*) Macaulay duration

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969696

Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

12.8 12.4 11.8

19.622.3

25.7 24.4 25.0

30.9 31.133.7

47.0

55.0 55.151.9 50.5

47.8

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Nov

.

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979797

Cost of External Borrowing (%)

EURODOLLAR

4.5 4.23.4

5.35.06.0

5.45.3

6.3

9.9 9.9

3

4

56

7

8

9

1011

12

13

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

(*) As of January 2019

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

10.7

7.0 7.36.2 5.8

4.94.3

5.84.9

5.76.3

4.7

10.1

8.1

6.97.37.3

3

4

5

6

78

9

10

11

12

13

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*

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989898

TRY Denominated Zero Coupon Borrowing Rates (Comp. Ann., %)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

J02

J N A S F J D M O M A J07

J N A S F J D M O M A J12

J N A S F J D M O M A J17

J N A S

Monthly Average Yearly Cumulative

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999999

Real Interest Rates (Comp. Ann., %)

Note: - The real interest rates are calculated by using 12 months ahead CPI rates. Calculations are based on zero coupon Treasury auction results and Survey of Expectations of CBRT.- Before 2013. the calculations are only based on zero coupon bonds however. as of 2013 they’re based on zero coupon bonds and 2-year fixed coupon bonds together.

Source: CBRT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

-10

10

20

30

40

5020

02-1 5 9

2003

-1 5 920

04-1 5 9

2005

-1 5 920

06-1 5 9

2007

-1 5 920

08-1 5 9

2009

-1 5 920

10-1 5 9

2011

-1 5 920

12-1 5 9

2013

-1 5 920

14-1 5 9

2015

-1 5 920

16-1 5 9

2017

-1 5 920

18-1 5 9

Real Interest Rate

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100100100

0.4 0.0

-0.6

2.6

8.0

5.0

-2.4

-3.6-3.1 -2.6

1.0

-0.5-1.4 -1.8

-1.3

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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101101101

Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

16.2

13.8

10.2

7.2

1.90.5 0.0

4.5

0.6

3.2

16.2

11.2

5.5 5.13.6

4

8

12

16

20

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

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Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

11.000

12.000

13.000

14.000

15.000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Q3

13,935

102

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Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

Million USD 2018 Q3

PUBLIC 10.690

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 300LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 603PUBLIC BANKS 8.613SOEs 1.174

PRIVATE 3.246BANKS 3.246

GENERAL TOTAL 13.935

103

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104

The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total Guaranteed Payments (%)

* Annualized as of November 2018Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

1.30.92.62.83.4

51.9

27.3

18.116.719.7

24.7

16.4

22.1

8.2

3.96.4

5.4

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Nov.2018

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Undertakings from Treasury Guarantees (Million USD)

105

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

100

200

300

400

500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Nov

. 201

8

Local Administrations Local Adm.(Investment Guarantees) SOEs Other

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106106106

The Stock of Treasury Receivables (Billion TL)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

5.98.8

12.9

8.0 7.1 7.3 8.2 9.0 8.3 8.6 7.95.0

0.4

3.9 3.8 3.91.1

13.4

12.4

10.0

13.3 15.313.6

17.4

19.1

17.0 15.9

13.9

15.0

16.3

13.8 13.8 13.617.3

5

10

15

20

25

30

Overdue projected

19.3

21.222.9

21.322.4

20.9

25.6

28.1

25.3

21.8

24.5

20.0

16.717.7 17.6 17.5

18.4

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107107

The Stock of Treasury Receivables (November 2018)

ByBorrowers(%) BySource(%)

Source:MinistryofTreasuryandFinance

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108108108

Collections (Million TL)

Source:MinistryofTreasuryandFinance

417 35

1.5611.937

104

2.188

1.9701.503

5.249

2.053

3.198

3.084

1.7942.641

1.872

2.606 2.446 2.492

1.118 1.6672.256

1.471

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

Non-Cash Cash

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109109109

Gross External Debt Stock (Billion USD)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT

Billion USD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2018 Q2TOTAL 291.7 305.3 342.1 392.6 405.7 400.3 409.2 454.8 466.7 457.0 SHORT TERM 77.2 83.1 102.4 133.3 135.1 105.4 101.4 118.1 122.3 119.7 LONG TERM 214.5 222.2 239.7 259.4 270.6 294.9 307.8 336.7 344.4 337.2 PUBLIC SECTOR 89.1 95.8 106.3 118.9 121.3 116.6 123.4 136.6 141.0 139.2 SHORT TERM 4.3 8.6 13.3 20.6 21.4 18.1 19.7 22.1 24.0 24.1 LONG TERM 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 98.6 103.7 114.4 116.9 115.1 CBRT 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 SHORT TERM 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 LONG TERM 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 PRIVATE SECTOR 191.1 200.2 228.7 268.5 281.9 282.3 285.0 317.6 325.1 317.2 SHORT TERM 71.4 73.3 88.1 111.8 113.3 87.1 81.5 95.9 98.2 95.5 LONG TERM 119.7 126.9 140.7 156.6 168.6 195.2 203.5 221.7 226.9 221.7

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110110110

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT

Gross External Debt Stock / GDP (%)

54.8

45.9

40.0

34.2

38.036.9 36.2

41.6

37.836.7

39.341.3

43.4

46.447.4

53.4 52.951.8

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1

2018Q2

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111111111

Turkey’s Net External Debt (% of GDP)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT

%37.4

%30.7

%25.6

%19.8

%19.8

%19.8

%19.5

%22.6 %22.4 %22.0

%21.8

%24.2

%26.2

%29.4%29.5

%34.2

%34.4%34.1

%10.0

%15.0

%20.0

%25.0

%30.0

%35.0

%40.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1

2018Q2

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112112112

External Debt Ratios (%)

% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2018 Q2

GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 37,8 36,7 39,3 41,3 43,4 46,4 47,4 53,4 52,9 51,8

PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 24,7 24,1 26,3 28,2 30,2 32,8 33,0 37,3 36,9 36,0

GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*) 256,2 226,3 224,4 258,6 257,4 278,3 287,1 289,7 291,1 282,4

PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*) 167,8 148,4 150,0 176,9 178,9 196,3 200,0 202,3 202,8 196,0

CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (**) 27,7 25,7 29,2 28,3 26,4 23,2 22,5 18,5 18,2 16,5

CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / SHORT TERM GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK

(**)104,5 94,4 97,6 83,3 79,1 88,2 90,8 71,3 69,4 63,1

(*) Source for export data is CBRT's Balance of Payments Statistics, April 2018.(**) Source for reserves data is CBRT's International Investment Position Statistics, April 2018.

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113113113

FINANCIAL SECTOR

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25.1

30.928.2

23.721.9

18.9 18.020.6

19.016.6

17.915.3 16.3 15.6 15.6

16.8 16.418.2

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017-11

2018-11

114114114

Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)

Source: BRSA

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4

8

12

16

20

24

2820

06-0

1

2006

-08

2007

-03

2007

-10

2008

-05

2008

-12

2009

-07

2010

-02

2010

-09

2011

-04

2011

-11

2012

-06

2013

-01

2013

-08

2014

-03

2014

-10

2015

-05

2015

-12

2016

-07

2017

-02

2017

-09

2018

-04

2018

-11

115115

Target Rate 12 percent

Legal Limit 8 percent

Operational risk included

Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)

Source: BRSA

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116116116

Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio in Selected Emerging Markets (%, 2018*)

Source: IMF-FSI, BRSA* Novwmber of 2018 figures or latest available.

20.0

18.918.4 18.2

17.6 17.6 17.2 17.2 17.0

15.714.8 14.6

13.613.0

12.5

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0In

done

sia

Rom

ania

Colo

mbi

a

Pola

nd

Turk

ey

Czec

h Re

p.

Thai

land

Hung

ary

Braz

il

Mal

aysi

a

Mex

ico

Kore

a

Indi

a

Chin

a

Chile

Russ

ia

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117117117

Banking Sector: Free Capital*/ Equity (%)

(*) Free Capital = Total Equity – (Fixed Assets + Affiliates. Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures)

Source: BRSA

36.3

51.056.0

65.7

72.675.3 77.0 79.6 81.4 81.6 82.0 81.6 81.1

77.6 77.6 76.5 75.2

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-11

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118118118

Banking Sector: Return on Equity (%)

Source: BRSA

11.3

18.2

15.8

12.1

21.0

24.8

18.6

22.8

20.0

15.5 15.714.2

12.311.3

14.315.9

14.813.9

10

20

30

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017-11

2018-11

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119119119

Banking Sector: Loans to Assets (%)

Source: BRSA

23.026.5

32.437.8

43.849.1 50.2

47.152.2

56.1 58.060.5 62.2 63.0 63.5 64.4 62.1

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-11

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120120120

Banking Sector: FX Position (Million USD)

(*) As of December 28, 2018.Source: BRSA

-549

187

-71 -63

141

-217

16408

41315

1,590

-363

-2,870

436

-1,381

627

2,842

-3000

-2400

-1800

-1200

-600

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

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121121121

Banking Sector: Asset Quality (NPL Ratio, %)

Source: BRSA

17.5

11.5

6.04.7

3.7 3.5 3.75.3

3.72.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.7

4

8

12

16

20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-11

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122122122

Firms Total Debt / Shareholder’s Equity and Interest Coverage* (Earnings Before Interest and Tax / Interest Expenses) Ratios (%)

(*) Provisional Statistics

Sorce: CBRT Company Accounts

050

100150200250300350400450

Total Debt / Shareholder's Equity Interest Coverage Ratio

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123123123

Household Liabilities (% of GDP)

10 12 13 15 17 18 19 21 20 19 18 18

65 66 6771 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 65

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Turkey Euro Area

Source: CBRT, ECB

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124124124

Total Housing Loans (% of GDP)

Source: FED, ECB, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK National Statistics,CBRT, TURKSTAT, BRSA, HDAT

(*) Total housing loans for 2010 comprises of housing credits extended by banks and consumer finance companies as well as Household liabilities to HDAT due to HDAT’s housing sales with long term maturity.

83.6

71.8

40.7

6.20.2

60.352.1

29.6

20

40

60

80

100

UK US Euro Zone Turkey*

2001 2010

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125125125

MARKET INDICATORS

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126126126

Foreign Exchange Rates (TL/USD)

Source: CBRT

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.0Ja

n-03

May

-03

Sep-

03Ja

n-04

Jun-

04O

ct-0

4Fe

b-05

Jun-

05N

ov-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

l-06

Dec

-06

Apr

-07

Aug

-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Sep-

08Ja

n-09

May

-09

Oct

-09

Feb-

10Ju

n-10

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1N

ov-1

1A

pr-1

2A

ug-1

2D

ec-1

2A

pr-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Feb-

15Ju

n-15

Oct

-15

Mar

-16

Jul-1

6N

ov-1

6M

ar-1

7A

ug-1

7D

ec-1

7A

pr-1

8A

ug-1

8Ja

n-19

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127127127

Interest Rates (%)

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

8

16

24

32

40

48

56

64

72Ja

n-03

May

-03

Sep-

03Ja

n-04

Jun-

04O

ct-0

4Fe

b-05

Jun-

05N

ov-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

l-06

Dec

-06

Apr

-07

Aug

-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Sep-

08Ja

n-09

May

-09

Oct

-09

Feb-

10Ju

n-10

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1N

ov-1

1A

pr-1

2A

ug-1

2D

ec-1

2A

pr-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Feb-

15Ju

n-15

Oct

-15

Mar

-16

Jul-1

6N

ov-1

6M

ar-1

7A

ug-1

7D

ec-1

7A

pr-1

8A

ug-1

8Ja

n-19

Domestic Debt Securities Secondary Market Rates

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128128128

BIST 100 Index

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000Ja

n-03

May

-03

Sep-

03Ja

n-04

Jun-

04O

ct-0

4Fe

b-05

Jun-

05No

v-05

Mar

-06

Jul-0

6De

c-06

Apr-

07Au

g-07

Dec-

07M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9O

ct-0

9Fe

b-10

Jun-

10O

ct-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

l-11

Nov-

11Ap

r-12

Aug-

12De

c-12

Apr-

13Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Feb-

15Ju

n-15

Oct

-15

Mar

-16

Jul-1

6No

v-16

Mar

-17

Aug-

17De

c-17

Apr-

18Au

g-18

Jan-

19

Source: Borsa Istanbul

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129129129

Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)

Source: JP Morgan

-400

-200

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

J-04

A-0

4M

-05

O-0

5M

-06

D-0

6J-

07F-

08S-

08A

-09

N-0

9J-

10J-

11A

-11

M-1

2O

-12

M-1

3D

-13

J-14

F-15

S-15

A-1

6N

-16

J-17

J-18

A-1

8

(EMBI+ Turkey) - (EMBI+)

EMBI+

EMBI+ Turkey

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130130130

Secondary Market and CBRT Policy Rate

Source: CBRT, Treasury

246

8101214

1618202224

262830

Jan-

05M

ay-0

5O

ct-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

l-06

Dec

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07Ja

n-08

Jun-

08N

ov-0

8M

ar-0

9A

ug-0

9Ja

n-10

May

-10

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1D

ec-1

1M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Feb-

13Ju

l-13

Nov

-13

Apr

-14

Sep-

14Ja

n-15

Jun-

15N

ov-1

5M

ar-1

6A

ug-1

6D

ec-1

6M

ay-1

7O

ct-1

7Fe

b-18

Jul-1

8D

ec-1

8

Com

poun

ded

Inte

rest

Rat

es (%

)

Secondary Market Rates CBRT Policy Rates

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131131131

Credit RatingStandard & Poor’s Credit Rating

Source: Bloomberg

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

N

SP

BB-

N

SP

B

NSP

B-

N

SP

BB

N

SP

BB+

N

SP

B+

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132132132

Rating Map (as of 7 January 2019)

A2 Botswana, Poland, Slovakia A Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia A IcelandBermuda, Ireland

A3 Malta, Mexico, Peru, Lithuania, Latvia A- Botswana, Saudi Arabia A- Poland, Latvia, LithuaniaIceland Malta, Spain, Poland Slovenia, Spain

Baa1 Thailand, Mauritius, Slovenia BBB+ Thailand, Peru BBB+ Thailand, MexicoSpain Trianidad & Tobago, Mexico Peru

Baa2 India, Bulgaria, Panama BBB Panama, Italy, India BBB Kazakhstan, PanamaUruguay, Colombia Philippines, Uruguay Italy, Colombia, BulgariaIndonesia, Philippines Indonesia, Philippines, Portugal

Baa3 Italy, South Africa BBB- Morocco, Kazakhstan, Russia, Cyprus BBB- Morocco, India, RomaniaRomania, Hungary, Oman Romania, Indonesia, Bulgaria CyprusKazakhstan, Bahamas, Portugal Hungary, Portugal, Colombia Uruguay, Russia, Hungary, San Marino

Ba1 Morocco, Guatemala, BB+ Bahamas, Crotia BB+ Azerbaijan, Paraguay, OmanTrianidad & Tobago Azerbaijan South Africa, Namibia, CroatiaRussia, Paraguay, Namibia

Ba2 Brazil, Croatia, Georgia BB Paraguay BB Turkey (negative), Costa Rica, Guatemala,VietnamAzerbaijan, Cyprus Oman, South Africa, Serbia Serbia

Ba3 Turkey (negative), Bangladesh, Bolivia, Fiji BB- Bangladesh, Georgia, BB- Georgia, Suriname, BoliviaSenegal, Dominican Republic Guatemala, Vietnam, Brazil, Bolivia Bangladesh, BrazilSerbia, Vietnam Dominican Republic, Honduras Dominican Republic, Greece, Bahrain

B1 Jordan, Montenegro, Suriname B+ Turkey (stable), Senegal, Fiji B+ Rwanda, Tunisia, MaldivesHonduras, Albania, Costa Rica Costa Rica, Bahrain, Greece Ecuador, Nigeria

Albania, Jordan, Montenegro

B2 Cambodia, Nicaragua, Argentina, Tunisia, Bahrain B Bosnia Herzegovina, Cambodia, Jamaica, Egypt, Sri Lanka, B Egypt, Jamaica, Argentina, Angola

Papua New Guinea, Rwanda, Nigeria, Sri Lanka Papua New Guinea, Tunisia, Rwanda, Pakistan, BelarusSuriname, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Mongolia, Argentina

Belarus, Mongolia, Sri Lanka

B3 Moldova, Egypt, Pakistan, St Vincent/Grenadine, Mongolia B- Lebanon, Angola, Republic of Congo B- Lebanon, UkraineBosnia Herzegovina, El Salvador, Greece, Belarus Nicaragua, El Salvador Nicaragua, PakistanEcuador, Belize, Jamaica, Lebanon, Angola Ukraine, Belize, Ecuador Suriname, El Salvador

Caa1 Ukraine, Gabon CCC+ CCC+Caa2 Cuba, Republic of Congo CCC CCCCaa3 Barbados CCC- CCC-Ca CC CC Republic of CongoC Venezuela C C

SD Barbados, Venezuela DDDD/RD Venezuela

Source: Bloomberg

Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch

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133133133

EMBI+ Index: Comparison with Other CountriesChange (bp) (02.01.2008 – 07.01.2019)

Source: Bloomberg

501

307

179

178

119

69

65

37

8

5460

-107

-800 -400 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400

Venezuela

Ukrayna

Arjantin

Türkiye

EMBI+

G. Afrika

Meksika

Rusya

Brezilya

Kolombiya

Filipinler

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134134134

Equity Markets (Emerging and Mature Markets)% Change (02.01.2008 – 07.01.2019)

Source: Bloomberg

79.6

75.7

63.8

56.1

47.9

46.2

35.5

16.9

9.9

4.4

-44.5

-51.2

-52

81.6

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

G. Afrika

ABD (DJI)

Hindistan

Türkiye

Macaristan

Meksika

Brezilya

Rusya

Malezya

G. Kore

Polonya

Japonya

Çek Cumh.

Çin

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135135135

Currency Markets (Against USD)% Change (02.01.2008 – 07.01.2019)

Source: Bloomberg

-356.9

-175.4

-109.8

-103.9

-77.7

-76.9

-62.8

-52.9

-24.7

-24.2

-19.4

1.4

6.1

100.0

-450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150

Türkiye

Rusya

Brezilya

G. Afrika

Meksika

Hindistan

Macaristan

Polonya

Çek Cumh.

Malezya

G. Kore

Japonya

Çin

Euro

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136136136

INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

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137137137

Starting a Business (Number of Procedures)

Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2018

11.5

11

8

8

7.8

7

7

7

7

6

5.2

5

5

4.9

0 4 8 12

India

Brazil

Czech Republic

Crotia

Mexico

China

Turkey

South Africa

Bulgaria

Hungary

Europe&Central Asia

Thailand

Poland

OECD (High Income)

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138138138

Starting a Business (Duration, Days)

45

37

29.8

23

22.9

10.1

10.1

9

8.5

8.4

7

7

6.5

4.5

0 10 20 30 40

South Africa

Poland

India

Bulgaria

China

Europe&Central Asia

Russia

Czech Republic

OECD (High Income)

Mexico

Croatia

Hungary

Turkey

Thailand

Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2018

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139139139

Starting a Business (Cost, % of GDP Per Capita)

Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2018

17

12.8

12

6.2

5.4

5

4.4

3.1

1.2

1.1

1

0.6

0 5 10 15 20

Mexico

Turkey

Poland

Thailand

Hungary

Brazil

Europe&Central Asia

OECD (High Income)

Bulgaria

Russia

Czech Rep.

China

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140140140

Taxes on Income and Profit (% of GDP, 2016)

Source: OECD

5.4

11.5

5

10

15

20

25

30

Turk

eyPo

land

Chi

leSl

oven

iaH

unga

ryM

exic

oSl

ovak

R.

Chz

ech

R.

Esto

nia

Kor

eaG

reec

eSp

ain

Japa

nIs

rael

Port

ugal

Irlea

ndN

ethe

rland

sFr

ance

OEC

D*

UK

Avu

stria

Ger

man

yU

SASw

itzer

land

Luxe

mbu

rgIta

lyN

orw

ayC

anad

aFi

nlan

dSw

eden

Bel

gium

Aus

tral

ia*

New

Zel

and

Icel

and

Den

mar

k

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141141141

Tax Revenue Comparisons (% of GDP, 2016)

(*) Includes Mexico, Korea, Czech Rep., Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Rep. and Spain.

Source: OECD

05

101520253035

Total Tax Revenue Taxes on Income andProfits

Taxes on Goods andServices

Turkey OECD Peer Group*

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142142142

RELATIONS with the IMF and EU

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143143143

Relations with the IMF

Arrangements Duration

Amount Approved

(Million SDR)

Amount Drawn(Million SDR)

Repurchases(Million SDR)

Projected Payments

(Million SDR)

17th Stand-By Arrangement

(12.1999 - 02.2002) 15,038 11,739 11,739 0

18th Stand-by Arrangement (02.2002 - 02.2005) 12,821 11,914 11,914 0

19th Stand-by Arrangement

(05.2005 - 05.2008) 6,662 6,662 6,662 0

TOTAL 34,522 30,315 30,315 0

Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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144144144

For 1 Chapter1- Science and Research

For 12 Chapters

For 2 Chapters1- Education and Culture,2- Economic and Monetary Policy

For 8 Chapters

Remaining chapters

EU Accession Process

Negotiations were opened and provisionally closed

Negotiations were opened provisionally but closingbenchmarks

Submission of our Position Papers

Opening benchmarks

Awaiting for the screening reports

I. Screening process: 3 October 2005 - 13 October 2006

II. Accession Talks :

1- Enterprise and Industrial Policy,2- Statistics, 3- Financial Control, 4- Consumer and Health Protection, 5- Trans-European Networks, 6- Company Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks). 7-Intellectual Property Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks) 8- Free Movement of Capital 9- Information Society & Media 10-Taxation, 11- Environment, 12- Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy

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145145145

SOCIAL SECURITY

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146146146

Social Security Reform

Uniform norm and standards for workers. civil servants and the self employed.

Gradual increase in retirement age to 65. Decrease in accrual rate to 2 %. The valorization of past earnings by CPI+30 % of GDP real growth Indexation of pensions by CPI. Universal health insurance (Covering entire population). Introduction of copayments for health care. Global budget in some health expenditures.

Main Features

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147147147

Decreasing Pension System Deficits (2007-2075,% of GDP)

Source: World Bank, 2007

Before the Reform

After the Reform

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148

Budget Transfers to Social Security Institution* (% of GDP)

*Deficit Financing, State Contribution, Billed Payments, Employment Incentives, General Health Insurance Premiums for Poor. Compensation for Tax Debate. Additional Allowance

NEP: New Economic Program

Source: SSI, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

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149149

Net Pension Replacement Rates (2016)

Net Pension Replacement Rate: The individual net pension entitlement divided by net pre-retirement earnings which are calculated based on 40 years of active labour (OECD)* The Half of Average Income Source:OECD. Pensions at a Glance, 2017

Low Income Earner* Average Income Earner

99.1

73.2

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

DenmarkNetherlands

ChinaIsrael

TurkeyLuxembourg

AustraliaItaly

PortugalBrazil

AustriaHungary

Czech RepublicIceland

SlovakRepublicNew Zealand

SpainEstonia

OECD‐AverageFranceIrelandFinlandNorwayKorea

BelgiumSwedenCanadaGreece

United StatesSwitzerland

SloveniaLatvia

GermanyRussiaJapan

United KingdomChile

PolandMexico

South Africa

102.1

62.9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TurkeyNetherlands

PortugalItaly

AustriaHungary

LuxembourgSlovakRepublic

ChinaSpain

DenmarkBrazil

IcelandIsrael

FranceBelgiumFinland

OECD‐ AverageCzechRepublic

LatviaEstoniaSloveniaSwedenGreeceCanada

GermanyUnited States

NorwayKorea

SwitzerlandNewZealand

AustraliaIrelandChileJapanRussiaPolandMexico

United KingdomSouthAfrica

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150150

Minimum Retirement Age for Men* (2016)

*Future retirement age for men who entered the labour force at age of 20 in 2016

Source: OECD. Pensions at a Glance, 2017

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151151

Minimum Retirement Age for Women* (2016)

*Future retirement age for women who entered the labour force at age of 20 in 2016

Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2017

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152152

Expected Years in Retirement for Men (2016)

Expected years after labour market exit.Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2017

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153153

Expected Years in Retirement for Women (2016)

Expected years after labour market exit.Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2017

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154154154

LABOR MARKET

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155155155

Labor Market Reform Increasing Flexibility of Labor Market

Allowing for temporary employment relationship via private employment offices and off-site working. Part-time workers will be eligible for retirement benefits by paying the premium due for remaining working hours as to

restore full premium payments for regular working hours. Part-time workers are covered by Unemployment Insurance Fund as regular workers.

The linkage between social assistance and employment Cash transfers from Social Assistance and Solidarity Promotion Fund will be cut off for a year in case beneficiaries do not

accept Turkish Labor Agency’s job offers. vocational trainings or active labor force programs in a third row. Giving premium incentive to employers who employ social assistance recipients.

Active labor market programs The budget allocation for active labor market programs is 30% of previous year’s premium income of The Unemployment

Insurance Fund.

Reduction of labor cost 5 percentage points of social security premium of the employers’ share are paid by the Government as an incentive. Employers are allowed to benefit from the above mentioned incentive concomitantly with other premium incentives. Employers’ share of social security premium for newly employed young and female workers is paid by Unemployment

Insurance Fund provided both employers and employees meet defined conditions. The coverage of short-term working allowance is extended to sectoral and regional crises together with general economic

crises. Daily short-term working allowance that was 40% of daily average gross income is increased to 60%. Obligation to employ ex-convicts is abolished. Sports facility. kindergarden. health and security unit’s requirements under the Labor Law are eased. Employers’ share of social security premium for disabled workers is paid by the Government. 666 TL of monthly social security premiums are paid by the UIF for additional employment.

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156156156*Single person at 100% of average earnings, no child.Source: OECD Taxing Wages, 2017

Tax Wedge on Employment (2016)

38.136

10

20

30

40

50

60Be

lgium

Germany

Hun

gary

France

Italy

Austria

Finland

Czechia

Sweden

Slovenia

Portugal

SlovakRep.

Greece

Spain

Estonia

Luxembo

urg

Turkey

Netherla

nds

Denmark

Norway

OECD‐Average

Poland

İcelan

d

Japan

UnitedStates

Canada

UnitedKingdom

Korea

Israel

Switzerland

Mexico

New

Zealand

Chile

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157157157(*) Single person at 100% of average earnings, no child (Share of total cost).

Source: OECD Taxing Wages 2017

Tax Wedge Distribution (2016)

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Social Security Contributions (% of GDP)

158* Data of Turkey is updated for new method of GDP calculation Source: OECD Statistics Database, 2016

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159

Number of Active Insured (Million)

*As of July

Source: Social Security Institutions, Montly Statistical Bulletin July 2018

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160

Social Security Coverage (Million) (Employees and Dependents)*

* Excluding citizens registered under the General Health Insurance** As of JulySource: Social Security Institutions, Montly Statistical Bulletin July 2018

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Labor Indicators by Regions (2016)

Source: TURKSTAT, 2017

Van

161

Regions Population 15 years and over Labour force Employed Unemployed

Labour force participation rate

(%)

Unemployment rate(%)

Employment rate(%)

Not in labour force

Turkey 58 720 30 535 27 205 3 330 52.0 10.9 46.3 28 185TR10 (İstanbul) 11 416 6 427 5 558 869 56.3 13.5 48.7 4 988TR21 (Tekirdağ. Edirne. Kırklareli) 1 320 764 707 58 57.9 7.5 53.5 556TR22 (Balıkesir. Çanakkale) 1 340 651 607 44 48.6 6.7 45.3 689TR31 (İzmir) 3 288 1 821 1 566 254 55.4 14.0 47.6 1 468TR32 (Aydın. Denizli. Muğla) 2 266 1 221 1 139 82 53.9 6.7 50.3 1 045TR33 (Manisa. Afyon. Kütahya. Uşak) 2.352 1 231 1 171 60 52.3 4.8 49.8 1 121TR41 (Bursa. Eskişehir. Bilecik) 3 033 1 520 1 380 139 50.1 9.2 45.5 1 513TR42 (Kocaeli. Sakarya. Düzce. Bolu. Yalova) 2 722 1 459 1 303 156 53.6 10.7 47.9 1 263

TR51 (Ankara) 4 045 2 153 1 908 244 53.2 11.4 47.2 1 892TR52 (Konya. Karaman) 1 691 845 793 52 50.0 6.1 46.9 845TR61 (Antalya. Isparta. Burdur) 2 254 1 277 1 130 146 56.6 11.5 50.1 978TR62 (Adana. Mersin) 2 917 1 459 1 308 151 50.0 10.4 44.8 1 458TR63 (Hatay. Kahramanmaraş. Osmaniye) 2 193 1 009 863 146 46.0 14.4 39.4 1 184TR71 (Kırıkkale. Aksaray. Niğde. Nevşehir. Kırşehir ) 1 110 584 506 78 52.6 13.4 45.6 526

TR72 (Kayseri. Sivas. Yozgat) 1 753 869 795 73 49.6 8.4 45.4 884TR81 (Zonguldak. Karabük. Bartın) 780 401 367 35 51.4 8.6 47.0 379TR82 (Kastamonu. Çankırı. Sinop) 590 338 318 20 57.3 5.8 54.0 252TR83 (Samsun. Tokat. Çorum. Amasya) 2 044 1 067 983 84 52.2 7.9 48.1 977TR90 (Trabzon. Ordu. Giresun. Rize. Artvin. Gümüşhane) 2 001 1 089 1 040 49 54.4 4.5 52.0 911

TRA1 (Erzurum. Erzincan. Bayburt) 759 376 357 19 49.5 5.0 47.0 383TRA2 (Ağrı. Kars. Iğdır. Ardahan) 775 397 377 19 51.2 4.9 48.7 378TRB1 (Malatya. Elazığ. Bingöl. Tunceli) 1 265 621 565 55 49.1 8.9 44.7 644TRB2 (Van. Muş. Bitlis. Hakkari) 1 358 576 523 53 42.4 9.2 38.5 782TRC1 (Gaziantep. Adıyaman. Kilis) 1 831 828 710 118 45.2 14.3 38.7 1 003TRC2 (Şanlıurfa. Diyarbakır) 2 260 1 021 846 175 45.2 17.2 37.4 1 238TRC3 (Mardin. Batman. Şırnak. Siirt) 1 359 532 381 151 39.1 28.3 28.0 827

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162162162Source: OECD, Labor Force Statistics Database, 2016

Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity (2015)

Countries Agriculture Industry Services

Turkey 23.6 23.6 52.8

Mexico 13.4 23.9 62.7

Poland 11.7 30.4 57.9

Korea 6.1 24.4 69.5

Brasil 15.1 24.2 60.7

Spain 4.3 19.9 75.8

Italy 3.6 27.3 69.1

Japan 3.7 25.8 70.5

CzechRep 3 37.6 59.4

Canada 2.2 19.9 77.9

UnitedKingdom 1 18.7 80.3

Germany 1.4 28 70.6

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163163163

Restrictiveness of Protection Legislation on Temporary Employment (Index Scale of 0-6 from Least to Most Restrictive)

4.875

1

2

3

4

5

6

Can

ada

USA U

K

Irela

nd

Swed

en

Aus

tral

ia

Japa

n

Net

herla

nds

New

Zea

land

Ger

man

y

Switz

erla

nd

Hun

gary

Aus

tria

Den

mar

k

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Finl

and

Pola

nd

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Port

ugal

Italy

Mex

ico

Kor

ea

Gre

ece

Bel

gium

Spai

n

Nor

way

Fran

ce

Luxe

mbo

urg

Turk

ey

1998 2013

OECD Avg. 1.72

Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics Database, 2018

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164164164

Part-time Employment (%, 2017)

0102030405060708090

Rus

sia

Hun

gary

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Pola

nd

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Esto

nia

Port

ugal

Slov

enia

Sout

h A

fric

a

Turk

ey

Gre

ece

Kor

ea

Spai

n

Swed

en

Finl

and

Luxe

mbo

urg

Fran

ce

Isra

el

Bel

gium

OEC

D c

ount

ries

Icel

and

Mex

ico

Chi

le

Italy

Nor

way

Can

ada

Den

mar

k

Part-time Employment as a Proportion of Total Employment Women's Share in Part-time Employment

Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics Database, 2018

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165165165

Severance Payments Burden (2017) (As weeks of Payment for 10 Years Work)

Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2018

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166166166

R&D

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167167167

Turkey: R&D Expenditures’ Share in GDP (%)

Source: TURKSTAT

0.530.51

0.470.50

0.57 0.56

0.69 0.69

0.81 0.80 0.800.83

0.82

0.860.88

0.94

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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168168168

1.3 1.8 2.22.9

3.84.4

6.16.9

8.19.3

11.2

13.114.8

17.6

20.6

24.6

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: TURKSTAT

R&D Expenditure* (Billion TL)

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169169169

R&D Expenditure per Capita (PPP, USD)

75

102110

124137

154169

181197

211

230

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: TUBITAK

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170170170

In 2002, 28,964 people.

In 2016, 136,953 people.

Number of R&D personnel increased by 394 % between 2002-2016

Turkey: Number of FTE* R&D Personnel

(*) Full Time Equivalent

Source: TURKSTAT

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171171171

Turkey: Number of FTE R&D Personnel

Source: TURKSTAT

27,003

27,698

28,96438,308

39,96049,252

54,44463,377

67,24473,521

81,792

92,801

105,122112,969

115,444

122,288

136,953

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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172172172

In 2002, 23,995 people.

In 2016, 100,158 people.

Number of researchers increased by 317 % between 2002-2016

Turkey: Number of FTE Researchers

(*) Full Time Equivalent

Source: TURKSTAT

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173173173

R&D Human Resources (1000 People)

Source: TURKSTAT

23 2427 28 29

38 4049

54

6367

7482

93

105113 115

122

137

19 20 23 23 2433 34

3943

50 5358

6472

8289 90

95

100

5

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Full-time R&D Personnel Full-time Researcher

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174174174

In 2002, 9,005 publications. In 2016, 31,555 publications. Number of scientific publications increased by 250 %

between 2002 and 2016.

Turkey: Number of Scientific Publications

Source: TUBİTAK

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175175175

Turkey: Number of Scientific Publication

9,005

10,704

13,354

14,36515,344

18,283

19,794

22,31823,624

24,488

26,03127,157

27,888

29,439

31,555

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: TUBİTAK

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176176176

Number of Scientific Publications per Million People

Source: TUBITAK

136

160

197209

221

259277

308320 328

344 354 359 374395

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

This indicator set is prepared for users to give up-to ...· 2008-1 4 7 102009-1 4 7 102010-1 4 7 102011-1 4 7 2012-1 4 7 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1 4 7 10 2017-1 - [PDF Document] (177)

177177177

In 2002, 85 international patent applications.

In 2016, 1068 international patent applications.

Number of international patent applications increased by 1156 % between 2002-2016.

Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications

Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report

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178178178

Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications

Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report

85 113 116174

269

359 392 388479

539 536

805853

10101068

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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179179179

Patent Applications and Registries

Source: TPI

73 93 68 95 122 318 338 456 642 847 1025 1244 12511730 1794 1964

414 490 685 935 1,090

1,8382,268

2,5883,250

4,0874,543 4,528

4,8615,512

6,445

8,625

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(Num

ber o

f pat

ents

)

Domestic Patent Registries Domestic Patent Appliciations

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180180180

Model Applications and Registries

376

704 678

964

1,665

2,148

1,833

2,1512,022

1,948

2,245

1,997

2,4742,681

2,347

2,014

914

1,206

1,479

1,896

2,424

2,972 2,9492,842

2,9943,175

3,726

3,468 3,477 3,451 3,4573,256

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(Num

ber

of M

odel

s)

Model Registrations Model Applications

Source: TPI

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181181181

ENERGY SECTOR

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182182182

Electricity Demand and Supply in Turkey (Billion kWh)

Source: TEİAŞ* Temporary data

273.5267.6

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183Source: Eurostat

0,0000

5,0000

10,0000

15,0000

20,0000

25,0000S

wed

en

Den

mar

k

Liec

hten

stei

n

Finl

and

Bos

nia

and

Her

zego

vina

Fran

ce

Aus

tria

Slo

veni

a

Ger

man

y

Slo

vaki

a

Irel

and

Eur

o A

rea

EU

28

EU

27

Luxe

mbo

urg

Hun

gary

Net

herla

nds

Cro

atia

Por

tuga

l

Ser

bia

Rom

ania

Pol

and

Gre

ece

Spa

in

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Bel

gium Ita

ly

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Est

onia

Mol

dova

Ukr

aine

Turk

ey

Mac

edon

ia

Bul

garia

Without Tax Other Taxes VAT

Industrial Natural Gas Prices(Euro / GigaJoule, For Consumers With 10,000 GJ – 100,000 GJ Annual Consumption, 2016 2nd Half)

This indicator set is prepared for users to give up-to ...· 2008-1 4 7 102009-1 4 7 102010-1 4 7 102011-1 4 7 2012-1 4 7 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1 4 7 10 2017-1 - [PDF Document] (184)

184184184

Source: Eurostat

05

101520253035

Swed

enSp

ain

Italy

Portu

gal

Liec

hten

stei

nN

ethe

rland

sD

enm

ark

Euro

Are

aIre

land

Fran

ceA

ustri

aG

reec

eG

erm

any

EU 2

7EU

28

Cze

ch R

epub

licSl

oven

iaB

elgi

umU

nite

d K

ingd

omSl

ovak

iaPo

land

Luxe

mbo

urg

Latv

iaLi

thua

nia

Cro

atia

Hun

gary

Bos

nia

and…

Esto

nia

Serb

iaR

oman

iaB

ulga

riaTu

rkey

Mol

dova

Ukr

aine

Without Tax Other Taxes VAT

Household Natural Gas Prices(Euro / GigaJoule, For Consumers With 20 GJ - 200 GJ Annual Consumption,2016 2nd Half)

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5

10

15

20

25

30

Den

mar

kG

erm

any

Italy

Cyp

rus

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Euro

Are

aLa

tvia

Mal

taPo

rtug

alEU

27

EU 2

8Sl

ovak

iaB

elgi

umIre

land

Spai

nA

ustr

iaG

reec

eEs

toni

aLi

thua

nia

Cro

atia

Hun

gary

Net

herla

nds

Fran

ceSl

oven

iaPo

land

Rom

ania

Nor

way

Mol

dova

Bul

garia

Finl

and

Turk

eyM

onte

negr

oC

zech

Rep

ublic

Kos

ovo

Bos

nia

and…

Mac

edon

iaU

krai

neSw

eden

Luxe

mbo

urg

Serb

ia

Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT

185185185Source: Eurostat

Industrial Electricity Prices Comparison EU & Turkey(Eurocent / kWh, For Consumers With 2.000 MWh – 20.000 Mwh Annual Consumption, 2016 2nd Half)

This indicator set is prepared for users to give up-to ...· 2008-1 4 7 102009-1 4 7 102010-1 4 7 102011-1 4 7 2012-1 4 7 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1 4 7 10 2017-1 - [PDF Document] (186)

186186

-5

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Den

mar

k

Ger

man

y

Bel

gium

Portu

gal

Italy

Irela

nd

Spai

n

Euro

Are

a

EU 2

7

Eu 2

8

Aus

tria

Swed

en

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Gre

ece

Fran

ce

Luxe

mbo

urg

Liec

hten

stei

n

Nor

way

Slov

enia

Latv

ia

Cyp

rus

Net

herla

nds

Finl

and

Slov

akia

Icel

and

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Pola

nd

Cro

atia

Mal

ta

Esto

nia

Rom

ania

Turk

ey

Lith

uani

a

Hun

gary

Mon

tene

gro

Bul

garia

Mol

dova

Bos

nia

and

Her

zego

vina

Alb

ania

Mac

edon

ia

Serb

ia

Kos

ovo

Ukr

aine

Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT

Household Electricity Prices Comparison EU & Turkey(Eurocent / kWh, For Consumers With 2.500 kWh - 5.000 kWh Annual Consumption, 2016 2nd Half)

Source: Eurostat

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January 2019

TURKISH ECONOMY

Republic of TurkeyMinistry of Treasury and Finance

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